Artikel

Moderne methodes van statistisch en ekonometrisch onderzoek

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Abstract

Modern methods in statistical and econometric research. – This paper tries to give a synthetic survey to the several, rather divergent, new techniques in economic and related statistical research. The modern development in this subject is seen as going in the direction of the methodology of the physical sciences, however it is shown that the classical methods used there are not sufficient for the problems of human society; classical mathematical economics can only give answers for over-simplified questions. New techniques and even new conceptions were necessary. On the basis of work already done the following attempted classification is made : a) problem: there is no repetition possible in the same, nor in guided changing circumstances. answer: correlation-analysis (rank-correlation will get special importance), b) problem: observations are mass observations. answer: the technique of aggregation (with as a special case the older simpler study of the making of index-numbers). c) problem: some circumstances are irrational, unobservable. answer: general game-theory. d) problem: the observed occurences are very complex. answer: input-output tables for statistical description; structures with their identification problem for dynamical research; important practical econometrical work has already been done. e) problem: occurences do influence one another also with certain time-lags. answer: analysis of time series. f) problem: it must be possible to make practical decisions on the basis of theoretical research. answer: cybernetica thinks to be able to give a general answer; activity analysis has already important applications on smaller economic problems; to include fully the probabilistic element it seems appropriate to use Wald’s decision functions

How to Cite:

Picard, H., (1956) “Moderne methodes van statistisch en ekonometrisch onderzoek”, Tijdschrift voor Sociale Wetenschappen 1(1-2), 126–145. doi: https://doi.org/10.21825/tvsw.95508