Artikel

Beschouwingen bij het futurologisch en polemologisch denken van Herman Kahn

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Abstract

Reflexions on Herman Kahn’s futurological and polemological thinking - On July 8, 1983, the American polemologist and futurologist Herman Kahn died. In this contribution the authors point out two essential themes in the oeuvre of Kahn, more especially his polemological thinking and his more general predictions about the future. As regards his polemological thinking, Kahn was influenced both by Lewis F. Richardson and Carl von Clausewitz. Kahn, who is undoubtedly known as the theoretician of nuclear war, was criticized by the more advanced direction in polemology, in particular by Anatol Rapoport. The authors try to shade these remarks and paint a more truthful picture of Kahn as a polemologist. In the second part of the article, attention is paid to the work of Kahn in the field of predicting the future development of society. His most successful work, The year 2000. A framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years (196/), was written in collaboration with Anthony J. Wiener. With this work, Kahn has provided a conceptual scheme for futurology and contributed to the extension of futurology as a scientific, paradigmatic discipline.

How to Cite:

Van Parys, G. & Byttebier, P., (1983) “Beschouwingen bij het futurologisch en polemologisch denken van Herman Kahn”, Tijdschrift voor Sociale Wetenschappen 28(4), 284–298. doi: https://doi.org/10.21825/tvsw.94861